England will emerge victorious

Despite the emergence of the Heineken Cup as European rugby’s premier club competition in recent years, there is little comparison when held up alongside the Six Nations Championship.  The quest for northern hemisphere glory begins in earnest this year when Wales and England go head to head at the Millennium stadium in Cardiff on February 4th.  It will be the first victory on the road to what I believe will be England and Martin Johnson’s successful title assault come the final weekend in March.  France will fight fiercely, Ireland will compete gamely but, after five rounds of international competition, England will emerge victorious for the first time since 2003.

Ireland’s scrum was again badly exposed over the four match series and with the best tight head prop in the country banished from the squad; we are entitled to question the coaches thinking.  Mike Ross has consistently delivered for Leinster against some of the most lauded front rows in Europe, yet he remains an outcast in Kidney’s camp.  The scrum, despite all of the IRB’s tinkering, remains a key facet of any test match and conceding defeat in this crucial set-piece would scupper any chance of Irish success this year.  If Brian O’Driscoll and company is to challenge for the championship trophy over the next two months, Ross must start in the number three jersey.

England are in the process of building a strong squad for the World Cup in New Zealand this year.  Martin Johnson defied the early criticism of his tenure by bringing through talented, young players in key attacking positions.  England’s problem has never been competing up front and with the emergence of Chris Ashton, Ben Youngs, Toby Flood and Ben Foden in the back-line; they are starting to look like a formidable outfit. 
Johnson appears to have finally stamped his ruthless, gritty determination on the squad and the former world cup winning captain seems a world away from the desk thumping, frustrated figure of last year.  The decision to drop Captain Steve Borthwick has paid dividends in the lineout with Northampton’s Courtney Lawes carrying his excellent club form through to the national side. 
Flood’s selection ahead of Jonny Wilkinson at fly-half signals Johnson’s ambition to move away from the 10 man rugby of 2003 and develop an attacking, exciting back line capable of scoring tries from almost any situation.  Victory over Australia in November was a huge stepping stone for England, particularly when put in context against France’s humiliation by the Wallabies in Paris the following week.  England, this season, are the team to beat.          

One would imagine that the criticism levelled at Marc Lievremont in the aftermath of that 59 – 16 drubbing at the hands of the Australians would be enough to shake the France coach off his lofty perch.  A starting fifteen bereft of ideas, enthusiasm and ability in key areas was a clear reflection of Lievremont’s ego and sense of self worth and what one can only assume was his distance from the team. In the English-speaking world the assumption would have been that the coach had lost the dressing room.
The disaster at the Stade de France will soon be forgotten by France’s fickle followers, if ‘Les Bleus’ can mount a strong defence of their Six Nations title.  Selection decisions hold the key to France’s potential success; if the right players are picked in their correct positions, the 2010 champions will pose a serious threat to all opposition, home and away. They remain the only team north of the equator with the firepower to win the World Cup.

Wales and Scotland appear to at a crossroads, for entirely different reasons.  Warren Gatland’s ability to not only survive but negotiate a new contract despite Wales’ poor run of form – one win in eight test matches. Gatland will not want to be reminded of his nemesis Eddie O’Sullivan, but the Cork coach always believed that “you are not what you are worth, but what you negotiate.”  The New Zealander clearly has a remarkable relationship with the Welsh Rugby Union but his recent contract extension must go down as the finest example of agent wizardry since O’Sullivan’s deal before the World Cup in 2007.  Another bad run in this year’s tournament might prompt WRU to have to rethink their decision to keep Gatland at the helm.  Meanwhile
Scotland are an improving squad under Andy Robinson. He epitomises what Matt Williams never was. The Englishman with none of the Australian’s talent, eloquence or coaching knowledge has brought success to his team by the simple application of a work ethic and a simple game plan. Scotland do not score tries but they are hard to beat and they kick their goals. They are to rugby what Leeds United under Don Revie were to soccer.
November’s victory over South Africa epitomised the team’s work ethic on the pitch and the player’s willingness to go the extra mile for their coach. Whether or not they can progress from that remains to be seen but the desire to succeed is undoubtedly there.  Murrayfield, on an international day, is always a daunting place to go and although Declan Kidney will seek to atone for last year’s final day defeat, Scotland are more than capable of holding off an Irish advance. 

Italy are odds-on to prop up the bottom of the table once again.  A sixth place finish will not come from a lack of effort or enthusiasm; they simply do not have the players to compete over a five round series.  As is usually the case, the best Nick Mallet can realistically hope for is one home win at the Stadio Flaminio and a strong performance away from home against one of the top teams.  Anything more than that would be asking a lot. 
The Azzurri’s participation in the tournament is fully justified and always memorable, but they are still some way behind the rest when it comes to challenging for the title. However by the autumn they might just be good enough to put a dent in Ireland’s World Cup ambitions in Dunedin.

The Six nation’s Championship of 2011 will be the precursor to the bigger event in autumn in New Zealand. Every coach will be attempting to stay aloft on the tightrope of success in Europe while trying to establish a squad, a game plan and confidence to carry over to the World Cup. It will be a difficult act to achieve but one suspects that a safety net will be required for Kidney and Gatland.